Tuesday, April 10, 2007

HRC is the Dems' Dominant Front Runner

According to the good people at Gallup:

But here's my concern. Those numbers concern Democrats, not undecideds, not independents (although those are mostly Republicans who are too embarrassed to wear the uniform), not anyone who is not currently a registered Democrat. Those numbers may be enough to get HRC the nomination, but they are nowhere near good enough to get her the White House.

Gallup says the following: Clinton's 97% name ID makes her one of the best-known politicians in Gallup Poll history. Her image ratings appear cast in stone at this point and have remained remarkably constant regardless of what is in the news. Voters give Clinton credit for her knowledge and expertise. Her long exposure in the White House also gives her "baggage", which some voters cite as a negative. She is less likely than other Democratic candidates to be seen as likable and in touch with ordinary people. Her favorable ratings among the general population fell in late March, and are the lowest of any of the four leading candidates. Still, Democrats see her as the most electable of the candidates. Bill Clinton is seen as an asset to a Hillary Clinton presidency rather than a detriment, even among Republicans. Hillary Clinton's gender gives her a significant edge among younger Democratic voters.

Voters are on a learning curve when it comes to Obama. His name ID has risen from 53% in December to 77% today. So far, his favorability has remained positive, although his negatives have risen from 11% in December to 24% today. Obama's great appeal to voters is his youth and freshness. He is also seen as likable. Voters also cite his inexperience as his biggest weakness. Well more than 9 in 10 voters say Obama's race would not be a factor in their vote.

Consider this (as a friend who conducts polling schooled me and as Gallup bears out): HRC's name recognition is 97%. Her favorable/unfavorables are "set in stone." Those numbers remain--and have remained--relatively consistent no matter what. What this means is that she has no room to grow support. People have already decided how they feel about her, about whether she will receive their vote or not. In a national election she will need more than every registered Democrat's vote. She will need the undecideds, the truly independents. However, it is more than likely that those people have already decided how they feel about her and do not represent a truly fertile pool of conversions post-primary.

You would think that these data would cause grave concern among Dems who wish to win back the White House, but nope. The Clinton machine rolls on unabated, focusing us on the primaries where she will no doubt kick a** and take names. Until the general election when we once again get our clocks cleaned when we should have known better.

My prediction? HRC will win the nomination and then lose the presidency by a huge margin. Hello, President Romney, perhaps?

1 comment:

Vigilante said...

Yes, I have said many times, many months ago, that Romney is the scariest foe of the Democrats: wealthy, articulate, charismatic. Will the GOP be smart enough to choose him?