No surprises so far @ 8:02pm
As expected, Barry takes my fatheadedly liberal homes of Massachusetts and DC. Also NJ, Delaware, Maine, Illinois, Connecticut, Vermont, Maryland.
McCain has South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Oklahoma.
8:20ish:
John King, bless his little Magic Board heart, is at the Board. He's making a key point, comparing McCain's precinct by precinct performance to Bush's performance in 2004. It shows, in almost every case, even in rural areas of states like Kentucky, that McCain is underperforming Bush 2004; a fact that cannot be attributed to increased African-American turnout. It shows he has failed to connect with Independents even in those most rural areas. As expected, the corollary to that fact is that he has almost universal support from Christian evangelicals in both rural and urban areas; the old "Sarah Palin energized the base but alienated everyone else" theory that may now be a fact.
They just called New Hampshire for Obama! Independents in that state went 60% for Obama, only 38% for McCain. Like I said, the Palin Drag Factor is likely now an indisputable fact.
Current Electoral Tally at 8:32pm:
McCain = 34
Obama = 81
May I add, rather disloyally, that I hope we Dems don't get a filibuster-proof House and Senate? It's bad for democracy no matter who is in power, and I really hope we don't get it, especially with "winners" like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid at the helm...
8:40pm HUGE NEWS!!
Current Electoral Tally at 8:40pm:
They just called Pennsylvania for Obama!!
McCain = 34
Obama = 102
My other dorky boyfriend, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, crunched the numbers 10,000 ways and found that if Obama takes Pennsylvania and either Virginia OR Florida, the race is over; McCain can't make up those numbers...
Current Electoral Tally at 9:00pm:
They just called Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico for Obama, North Dakota, Georgia and Wyoming for McCain.
McCain = 64
Obama = 174
On the Senate front: Jeanne Shaheen in NH and Tom Udall in New Mexico! Two pick-ups for the Dems, which means a majority.
Oh--and PS--I'm watching CNN. We switched to Fox News for a while to see how the other half was reporting, but they were incompetent in the extreme, mistakenly calling Ohio for Obama instead of Wisconsin. Don't go there, folks.
Current Electoral Tally at 9:23pm:
They just called West Virginia for McCain.
McCain = 69
Obama = 174
Huge News at 9:34pm:
CNN calls Ohio for Obama
McCain = 69
Obama = 194
No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. I'm just saying...
9:43pm: Correction--CNN has not called New Mexico for Obama but Fox News did. So the 194 does not include that state.
Current Electoral Tally at 9:48pm:
Okay, they just called New Mexico for Obama, Louisiana for McCain
McCain = 78
Obama = 199
Current Electoral Tally at 10:00pm:
CNN calls Iowa for Obama, Utah for McCain:
McCain=89
Obama=206
Folks, I think this thing is really going to happen. And it's going to be a big, huge win for Obama and a big, huge loss for McCain and the Republicans. I'll post after the fact (so as not to jinx anything) with thoughts on such a win or loss...
Current Electoral Tally at 10:10pm:
CNN calls Arkansas for McCain:
McCain=95
Obama=206
Current Electoral Tally at 10:22pm:
CNN calls Texas and Mississippi for McCain:
McCain=135
Obama=207
Current Electoral Tally at 10:45pm:
Fox News has called Virginia for Obama; CNN still has not, so I'm not adding that yet.
I do have to say that CNN is cool with all their bells and whistles. They are hologramming people into the studio from Grant Park, Chicago. As Will.i.am says, "This is like Star Wars!" You should turn on CNN just for that alone.
The Map So Far:
From fivethirtyeight.com
Polls close on the West Coast in 5 minutes. Stay tuned.
Current Electoral Tally at 10:58pm:
CNN calls Virginia for Obama. The last time VA went Dem it was for LBJ in 1964.
McCain=135
Obama=220
Once they call California it's the official ballgame, folks.
They just called it! California went for Obama!
President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama!!!!!!!
YES WE CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11:18pm: McCain Concedes, rather classily. Can't say the same for his audience. Oh but wait. Now he's making it all about Obama being black. Obama never ran as the black candidate, even though he is black. Light applause when he says nice things about Obama. Okay, he's back to classy, urging all Americans to offer goodwill to the next president. Not to be nasty, but this feels to me like his attempt to go back to being "the old McCain." I grant him the classiness of this speech, but remind him that he could have won if he'd been this guy the entire campaign. I just don't think he really knows who he is, which his terrible campaign reflected.
They just called Florida for Obama. This is a rout, y'all. We're now at:
McCain=155
Obama=333
They've just called Nevada for him. He's now at 338.
And might I add that thank God, Obama has also won the popular vote. Gergen says his popular vote total percentage will be the largest since Lyndon Johnson, making him a national winner, rather than a segmented, state-by-state president.
Now for the Obama speech, because this needs to be the speech of a President-Elect, not a jubilant candidate. Let's see what happens:
11:57pm
First of all, a cute family. If you doubt that the American Dream is available to all, this night is your answer. Change has come to America. Classy ode to John McCain. Shout out to Joe Biden. Shout out to Michelle, the love of his life. Sasha and Malia, you have earned the new puppy that is coming with us to the White House. Shout out to David Plouffe and David Axelrod, the masterminds behind the campaign. This victory truly belongs to you. You did all this work not to win an election but because you understand the enormity of what lies ahead. The road ahead will be long, the road will be steep, but we as a people will get there. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face, I will ask you to join with me in the remaking of this nation. This victory is not the change we seek; it is only the chance to make that change. Let us summon a new spirit of patriotism...to look after not only ourself but each other. While the Dems have won a huge victory tonight we do so with a measure of humility. Quotes Lincoln: "We are not enemies, but friends..." Speaks to those whose support he has yet to earn..." Okay I'm just going to stop here because this is a great effing speech and I am ruining it by paraphrasing. I'll post the video for you tomorrow.
Good night, and God Bless America!
2 comments:
Yay Ohio! I teared up when they called that one!
What a magnificent night.
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