Election Night LiveBlogging

For those of you who'd like a recap without sitting around all night watching TV:

No surprises so far @ 8:02pm
As expected, Barry takes my fatheadedly liberal homes of Massachusetts and DC. Also NJ, Delaware, Maine, Illinois, Connecticut, Vermont, Maryland.

McCain has South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky and Oklahoma.

8:20ish:
John King, bless his little Magic Board heart, is at the Board. He's making a key point, comparing McCain's precinct by precinct performance to Bush's performance in 2004. It shows, in almost every case, even in rural areas of states like Kentucky, that McCain is underperforming Bush 2004; a fact that cannot be attributed to increased African-American turnout. It shows he has failed to connect with Independents even in those most rural areas. As expected, the corollary to that fact is that he has almost universal support from Christian evangelicals in both rural and urban areas; the old "Sarah Palin energized the base but alienated everyone else" theory that may now be a fact.

They just called New Hampshire for Obama! Independents in that state went 60% for Obama, only 38% for McCain. Like I said, the Palin Drag Factor is likely now an indisputable fact.

Current Electoral Tally at 8:32pm:

McCain = 34
Obama = 81

May I add, rather disloyally, that I hope we Dems don't get a filibuster-proof House and Senate? It's bad for democracy no matter who is in power, and I really hope we don't get it, especially with "winners" like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid at the helm...

8:40pm HUGE NEWS!!

Current Electoral Tally at 8:40pm:
They just called Pennsylvania for Obama!!

McCain = 34
Obama = 102

My other dorky boyfriend, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, crunched the numbers 10,000 ways and found that if Obama takes Pennsylvania and either Virginia OR Florida, the race is over; McCain can't make up those numbers...

Current Electoral Tally at 9:00pm:
They just called Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico for Obama, North Dakota, Georgia and Wyoming for McCain.

McCain = 64
Obama = 174

On the Senate front: Jeanne Shaheen in NH and Tom Udall in New Mexico! Two pick-ups for the Dems, which means a majority.

Oh--and PS--I'm watching CNN. We switched to Fox News for a while to see how the other half was reporting, but they were incompetent in the extreme, mistakenly calling Ohio for Obama instead of Wisconsin. Don't go there, folks.

Current Electoral Tally at 9:23pm:
They just called West Virginia for McCain.

McCain = 69
Obama = 174

Huge News at 9:34pm:
CNN calls Ohio for Obama
McCain = 69
Obama = 194

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. I'm just saying...

9:43pm: Correction--CNN has not called New Mexico for Obama but Fox News did. So the 194 does not include that state.

Current Electoral Tally at 9:48pm:
Okay, they just called New Mexico for Obama, Louisiana for McCain
McCain = 78
Obama = 199

Current Electoral Tally at 10:00pm:
CNN calls Iowa for Obama, Utah for McCain:
McCain=89
Obama=206

Folks, I think this thing is really going to happen. And it's going to be a big, huge win for Obama and a big, huge loss for McCain and the Republicans. I'll post after the fact (so as not to jinx anything) with thoughts on such a win or loss...

Current Electoral Tally at 10:10pm:
CNN calls Arkansas for McCain:
McCain=95
Obama=206

Current Electoral Tally at 10:22pm:
CNN calls Texas and Mississippi for McCain:
McCain=135
Obama=207

Current Electoral Tally at 10:45pm:
Fox News has called Virginia for Obama; CNN still has not, so I'm not adding that yet.
I do have to say that CNN is cool with all their bells and whistles. They are hologramming people into the studio from Grant Park, Chicago. As Will.i.am says, "This is like Star Wars!" You should turn on CNN just for that alone.

The Map So Far:


From fivethirtyeight.com

Polls close on the West Coast in 5 minutes. Stay tuned.

Current Electoral Tally at 10:58pm:
CNN calls Virginia for Obama. The last time VA went Dem it was for LBJ in 1964.
McCain=135
Obama=220

Once they call California it's the official ballgame, folks.

They just called it! California went for Obama!
President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama!!!!!!!

YES WE CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

11:18pm: McCain Concedes, rather classily. Can't say the same for his audience. Oh but wait. Now he's making it all about Obama being black. Obama never ran as the black candidate, even though he is black. Light applause when he says nice things about Obama. Okay, he's back to classy, urging all Americans to offer goodwill to the next president. Not to be nasty, but this feels to me like his attempt to go back to being "the old McCain." I grant him the classiness of this speech, but remind him that he could have won if he'd been this guy the entire campaign. I just don't think he really knows who he is, which his terrible campaign reflected.

They just called Florida for Obama. This is a rout, y'all. We're now at:

McCain=155
Obama=333

They've just called Nevada for him. He's now at 338.

And might I add that thank God, Obama has also won the popular vote. Gergen says his popular vote total percentage will be the largest since Lyndon Johnson, making him a national winner, rather than a segmented, state-by-state president.

Now for the Obama speech, because this needs to be the speech of a President-Elect, not a jubilant candidate. Let's see what happens:

11:57pm
First of all, a cute family. If you doubt that the American Dream is available to all, this night is your answer. Change has come to America. Classy ode to John McCain. Shout out to Joe Biden. Shout out to Michelle, the love of his life. Sasha and Malia, you have earned the new puppy that is coming with us to the White House. Shout out to David Plouffe and David Axelrod, the masterminds behind the campaign. This victory truly belongs to you. You did all this work not to win an election but because you understand the enormity of what lies ahead. The road ahead will be long, the road will be steep, but we as a people will get there. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face, I will ask you to join with me in the remaking of this nation. This victory is not the change we seek; it is only the chance to make that change. Let us summon a new spirit of patriotism...to look after not only ourself but each other. While the Dems have won a huge victory tonight we do so with a measure of humility. Quotes Lincoln: "We are not enemies, but friends..." Speaks to those whose support he has yet to earn..." Okay I'm just going to stop here because this is a great effing speech and I am ruining it by paraphrasing. I'll post the video for you tomorrow.

Good night, and God Bless America!

1 Day To Change

For real, the BEST reason to vote Obama I've seen in two years:

1 Day To Change

Posted using ShareThis

Tiny Kid, Big Questions, Tough Answers

This is a completely non-political post. The other day Bambina and I were in the car talking about the day her new baby cousin was born. She first asked "what does 'being born' mean?" I answered that it was the day the baby comes out of the mother's tummy and enters the world; that it's your birthday. Then. "Will Baby Cousin stay with Aunt and Uncle forever?"

Oh God, here it comes. "Yes, my love, he will. When a baby is born, some different things might happen. Most times, the baby stays with the birthmother and father forever. Other times the baby goes to live in an orphanage or foster home. Other times, the baby is adopted by a family who becomes the baby's forever mommy and daddy, forever."

"Why?" Okay, how to make this make sense for a 4 year-old? "Well, sometimes when a baby is born the mother and father might not be able to take care of the baby for lots of grown-up reasons that have nothing to do with the baby herself. And so, in China for instance, the mother will put the baby in a very busy place to be found right away, and that is how a person in China would make sure that her baby is adopted and loved and taken care of by a forever family." Oh god, I'm sucking at this!

And then it happened. The question I've been dreading, preparing for, anticipating since 2005:

"Mama, why did my Chinese mother not stay with me forever? Did she want to stay with me forever?"

That sound you heard was my heart breaking inside me, looking at her sweet little face asking such a huge, adult question.

We've talked before about the rules in China about one child, and just in general about how having a baby in your tummy doesn't mean always that the mommy is able to be a forever mommy. But I still tried to come at it like we were starting from zero. In effect, I went into prepared speech mode (don't lie, don't appear taken aback by the question, keep it age-appropriate) and did okay, I think, but damn if I didn't cry my eyes out later that night:

"Well, Sweet Girl, I don't know. But I bet she did wish she could stay with you forever. I bet she and your Chinese father thought and thought about what to do, and I bet it was super hard for them to say goodbye to you. In China, the only way for babies to be adopted is for the parents to put them in a busy, busy place to be found, and that is what your Chinese mother did for you. You were found right away, and that is how Mama and Dada ended up getting the call from China saying that we could be your forever Mama and Dada."

I was expecting a follow-up question, but not this one: "Where did she put me?" I answered her, and she seemed okay with it. As I frantically searched my mind for other prepared speeches, her next question turned the tide: "Can you turn the music back on please?"

With that, my daughter told me she'd learned enough for one 4 year-old day, once again demonstrating that she's the one guiding ME through all of this. I know that we will converse about this again in different ways as she grows, but I find myself working it into conversations more and more now as I see her mental gears turning, figuring out that her story is a little different than her friends' stories, and trying to make sense as a child of what is a very adult situation.

In any case, whether you are an adoptive family or not (maybe especially if you are not), you can help Bambina and other kids who were adopted by talking to your kids about adoption as simply another way families happen. Feel free to NOT put words like "abandoned" and "gave up" into your child's adoption lexicon, opting for terms like "placed for adoption" or "made a plan" to have the baby adopted instead. Because seeing my sweet Bambina's face asking if her Chinese mother wanted to stay with her forever--and imagining what any mother would feel as she said goodbye to her brand new infant daughter--I simply do not believe that "abandonment" played any role in it. My daughter was placed where she would be found quickly. It's that simple, and I suppose, it's precisely that complicated.

Clockwatching Pollwatching

For those of you pollwatching, here is a helpful guide from swingstate.com:


Feel free to call my cell and chat about the returns--you know I'll be doing nothing else.

Palin: Our First African-American VP

If you need one more reason to know that Sarah Palin is a disaster, see this video over at Ben Smith's blog, where she tells the only African-American at her rally that she understands prejudice because "we live it," Todd being Alaskan and all...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/We_live_it.html?showall

Bringing Democracy to America

This commentary by Rachel Maddow on the sometimes 8-hour lines to vote is a must-see, especially if you don't really believe that 8-hour lines to vote exist. This footage reminds me of that first vote in Iraq--bombed-out, post-dictatorship Iraq--where people waited--8 HOURS or more--to vote. We clearly need to bring democracy to America if we can't do better than a war-torn country's first election ever:

Polisex

When I was in high school and would complain about the dirty-minded boys in my class, my mom would always say, "Those who talk about it the most are usually doing it the least."

Ditto that for politics; at least for me. Beyond the obvious reasons of regime-change and an Olympic-speed sprint away from the disaster that is our current neocon-ocracy, I've been so engaged in this election, I think, because it's the first presidential race since 1992 that has not seen me in the middle of it all, attending the conventions, hanging out with people who do it for a living, and--tonight--attending big parties attended by People You Have Heard Of. Tonight I will be on my couch with the BBDD and Anderson Cooper (nothing wrong with that combo!), and it will be lovely. But it ain't the same as hangin' with Carville or Gergen while wearing something other than jeans, now is it?

Yes indeed, friends, I am what you might call "politically frustrated" after a whole campaign in which I could neither canvass, make calls, attend the convention or even vote in person; and I fear that this blog reflects said frustration. I check online political sites like they were p*rn, devouring every piece of polling data I can while the BBDD is asleep, hoping he never looks in the cache file to find the true extent of my sorry obsession...Oh yes, it's a problem. Made larger by the fact that it will all be over tonight (Dear God, let it be over tonight!), and I'll have to find some other outlet for my frustrated political energy.

Perhaps I will obsess over the details of the transition (if Barry wins) or alternatively obsess over the all-too-real Palin-as-VP nightmare, never mind the John McCain as president nightmare... In any case, I'm sure I'll inflict it all on you, right here.

Now, GO VOTE!!!